The indirect health impacts of COVID19 restrictions: a strong debate informed by weak evidence

Ait Ouakrim, D.; Katar, A.; Abraham, P.; Grills, N.; Blakely, T.

Policies to restrict movements and contact between people have been a common response to control the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in many countries around the world, in varying degrees of stringency. However, there have been concerns on the possible negative effects of these restrictions such as stay-at-home orders and lockdowns. In this analysis we attempt to determine the quantitative evidence of these potential harms, focusing on the few studies that approximate a counterfactual variation in level of restrictions. We find clear adverse impacts of lockdowns on mental health, intimate partner violence and physical activity, as well as a decrease in road traffic injuries, and increase in generalised anxiety. A discussion driven by science (not politics) is needed on what lockdowns can deliver, their limitations and how to optimally deploy them, keeping country specific circumstances in mind, along other public health strategies, in the fight against COVID-19.