Implications of Delay in Compulsory Mask Wearing -- A What-if Analysis

Kaiheng, Brandon Tay; Roby, Carvalho Andrea; Wenjiang, Jodi Wu; Tan, Da Yang

We investigate the impact of the delay in compulsory mask wearing on the spread of COVID-19 in the community, set in the Singapore context. By using modified SEIR-based compartmental models, we focus on macroscopic population-level analysis of the relationships between the delay in compulsory mask wearing and the maximum infection, through a series of scenario-based analysis. Our analysis suggests that collective masking can meaningfully reduce the transmission of COVID-19 in the community, but only if implemented within a critical time window of approximately before 80 - 100 days delay after the first infection is detected, coupled with strict enforcement to ensure compliance throughout the duration. We also identify what is called a point of no return, a delay threshold of about 100 days that results in masking enforcement having little significant impact on the Maximum Infected Values.