Author: Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra; Andreu Comas-Garcia; Esteban Hernandez-Vargas; Mario Santana-Cibrian; Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez
Title: The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: aiq6ejcq_72
Snippet: • Restricting population mobility has been reported as highly effective for the containment of the initial COVID-19 outbreak in China [22, 23] . We have attempted to describe the present conditions in Mexico to evaluate the consequences of delaying or advancing the enforcement of isolation and mobility restrictions putting special emphasis on the role of asymptomatic cases since these have been identified as probable important drivers of the di.....
Document: • Restricting population mobility has been reported as highly effective for the containment of the initial COVID-19 outbreak in China [22, 23] . We have attempted to describe the present conditions in Mexico to evaluate the consequences of delaying or advancing the enforcement of isolation and mobility restrictions putting special emphasis on the role of asymptomatic cases since these have been identified as probable important drivers of the disease [13, 24] . At the start of the epidemic in Mexico, Figure 3 shows that the higher the proportion of asymptomatic cases arriving two things happen: the outbreak occurs earlier and also the peak of the outbreak is higher. The role of asymptomatic cases has been under study in the literature particularly as their likely important role in driving the epidemic appears clearer. In our case, their impact is to generate an earlier outbreak and also a higher maximum incidence.
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