Comparative analysis of the diffusion of Covid-19 infection in different countries

Granozio, Fabio Miletto

The sudden spread of Covid-19 outside China has pushed on March 11 the World Health Organization to acknowledge the ongoing outbreak as a pandemic. It is crucial in this phase to understand what should countries which presently lag behind in the spread of the infection learn from countries where the infection spread earlier. The choice of this work is to prefer timeliness to comprehensiveness. By adopting a purely empirical approach, we will limit ourselves to identifying different phases in the plots of different countries, based on their different functional behaviour, and to make a comparative analysis. The comparative analysis of the registered cases curves highlights remarkable similarities, especially among Western countries, together with some minor but crucial differences. We highlight how timeliness can largely reduce the size of the individual national outbreaks, ultimately limiting the final death toll. Our data suggest that Western governments have not unfortunately shown the capability to anticipate their decisions, based on the experience of countries hit earlier by the outbreak.