The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico

Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra; Andreu Comas-Garcia; Esteban Hernandez-Vargas; Mario Santana-Cibrian; Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez

The Mexico City airport is one of the main connections hubs of Latin America and the country, and therefore arrival of COVID19 cases has occurred. In this section, we use data on the daily number of domestic and international travelers that arrive/leave to/from the Mexico City airport [16] . Below we follow the ideas presented first in [3] . We construct an standard SEIR Kermack-McKendrick mathematical model (see Appendix B) where s, e, y a , y s and r represent susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic infectious, symptomatic infectious, and recovered (immune) individuals. N is the total population. The force on infection is (β a y a + β s y s )/N . We consider that symptomatic individuals have restricted movement since either they are too sick to travel or are immediately detected by the health services at the airport or elsewhere. This consequently decreases their overall contact rate β s compared to that of an asymptomatic individual β a . Therefore β s < β a throughout this section. Following [3] we define two rates related to the inbound number of international air passengers to Mexico City (L im ), and the inbound number of national of both airplane and terrestrial passengers to Mexico City (L sm ). The basic model is shown in Appendix B