Author: Renato Machado Cotta; Carolina Palma Naveira-Cotta; pierre magal
Title: Modelling the COVID-19 epidemics in Brasil: Parametric identification and public health measures influence Document date: 2020_4_3
ID: 3rmrkzuq_61
Snippet: The predicted number of unreported infectious cases is now reaching after 150 days around 36,770 individuals, while the reported cases should reach 50,006 individuals, with a marked decrease to a total of around 86,777 infectious cases, about 30% reduction with respect to the base case. The predicted evolution of the daily reported infectious cases would then show a peak at around t=46 days of about 2,196 reported cases. Again, though this peak v.....
Document: The predicted number of unreported infectious cases is now reaching after 150 days around 36,770 individuals, while the reported cases should reach 50,006 individuals, with a marked decrease to a total of around 86,777 infectious cases, about 30% reduction with respect to the base case. The predicted evolution of the daily reported infectious cases would then show a peak at around t=46 days of about 2,196 reported cases. Again, though this peak value is higher than for the base case, before the public health improvements, a number of these are of mild symptomatic cases that were moved from the unreported to the reported cases evolution, thus moved to monitored isolation earlier, and not necessarily requiring hospitalization. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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