Tracking the spread of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) based on big data

Zhao, Xumao; Liu, Xiang; Li, Xinhai

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) appeared in Wuhan in late 2019 have infected 34,598 people, and killed 723 among them until 8th February 2020. The new virus has spread to at least 316 cities (until 1st February 2020) in China. We used the traffic flow data from Baidu Map, and number of air passengers who left Wuhan from 1st January to 26th January, to quantify the potential infectious people. We developed multiple linear models with local population and air passengers as predicted variables to explain the variance of confirmed cases in every city across China. We found the contribution of air passengers from Wuhan was decreasing gradually, but the effect of local population was increasing, indicating the trend of local transmission. However, the increase of local transmission is slow during the early stage of novel coronavirus, due to the super strict control measures carried out by government agents and communities.