Author: Steven Sanche; Yen Ting Lin; Chonggang Xu; Ethan Romero-Severson; Nick Hengartner; Ruian Ke
Title: The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: 45g12waw_12
Snippet: Our estimated outbreak growth rate is significantly higher than two recent reports where the growth rate was estimated to be 0.1 per day (1, 5). This estimate were based on early case counts from Wuhan (1) or international air travel data (5) . However, these data suffer from important limitations. The reported case counts in Wuhan during early outbreak are likely to be underreported because of many factors, and because of the low numbers of indi.....
Document: Our estimated outbreak growth rate is significantly higher than two recent reports where the growth rate was estimated to be 0.1 per day (1, 5). This estimate were based on early case counts from Wuhan (1) or international air travel data (5) . However, these data suffer from important limitations. The reported case counts in Wuhan during early outbreak are likely to be underreported because of many factors, and because of the low numbers of individuals traveling abroad compared to the total population size in Wuhan, inference of the infected population size and outbreak growth rate from infected cases outside of China suffers from large uncertainty (7, 8) . Our estimated exponential growth rate, 0.29/day (a doubling time of 2.4 days) is consistent the rapidly growing outbreak during late January (Fig. 1A) .
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