Susceptibility and Sustainability of India against CoVid19: a multivariate approach

Soumi Ray; Mitu Roy

We have given a try to understand the effect of lockdown. How this lockdown is impacting the community transmission is an important study. The entire world is depending on this policy in absence of vaccines. A detailed study of this factor will help us to predict the required lockdown duration for India. We have taken the number of new registered cases of different countries at the starting of lockdown and then after completion of each week till 9 th April 2020. We have considered the total change per week to reduce the noise of a temporary change in rate. A sudden change in the number for one or two days without any consistency does not portray any significant change of the overall situation of a country. The result is presented as graph in figure 3. Only Norway and Italy have entered into the 5 th week of lockdown and both countries have shown a drop in new cases after 4 th week. But the steadiness is which is yet to be known, and it is highly required to conclude in a positive note. Italy has completed 4 days of 5 th week on 9 th April 2020. The new cases registered in this duration are 14314, which is a little lower rate than the rate per day of 4 th week of lockdown. Austria and Australia have shown notable reduction after 3 weeks of lockdown. After 4 th day of the 4 th week, the average per day new cases is still very low in Austria. Australia has just completed 1 day of next week as on 10 th April. Though per day rate is lower than last week but it is higher for new cases registered in each of the last 2 days. Though no conclusion can be drawn about prevention of infection through lockdown, a prospective evidence of slowdown in the rate of spread of CoVid19 pandemic is available. For a decisive interpretation the impact of lockdown needs to be observed for few more weeks. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.