Author: Adam Burns; Alexander Gutfraind
Title: Symptom-Based Isolation Policies: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Outbreaks of Influenza and COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: d13j2pt5_32
Snippet: For COVID-19, we find that one day of post-fever isolation would reduce the attack rate by 8% in the conservative scenario where only 50% of the cases detect fever ( Table 2 ). The policy is expected to achieve a 20% reduction in the peak of concurrent infections and extend the duration by 5 days. The policy is more effective if a greater proportion of cases are aware of their symptoms, and a 15% reduction is possible with six days of isolation a.....
Document: For COVID-19, we find that one day of post-fever isolation would reduce the attack rate by 8% in the conservative scenario where only 50% of the cases detect fever ( Table 2 ). The policy is expected to achieve a 20% reduction in the peak of concurrent infections and extend the duration by 5 days. The policy is more effective if a greater proportion of cases are aware of their symptoms, and a 15% reduction is possible with six days of isolation after fever. Generally, COVID-19 is harder to control than influenza with isolation policies in part because the peak of infectiousness for SARS-CoV-2 arises before the development of fever symptoms, rather than coinciding with them (Appendix A). CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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