Author: Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon
Title: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: emodr41j_23
Snippet: An unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the Australian health system, over a prolonged period ( Figure 2 ). Case isolation and contact quarantine applied at the same level of effective coverage throughout the epidemic have the potential to substantially reduce transmission. By 'flattening the curve' they produce a prolonged epidemic with lower peak incidence ( Figure 2 ) and fewer overall infections. Epidemic sc.....
Document: An unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the Australian health system, over a prolonged period ( Figure 2 ). Case isolation and contact quarantine applied at the same level of effective coverage throughout the epidemic have the potential to substantially reduce transmission. By 'flattening the curve' they produce a prolonged epidemic with lower peak incidence ( Figure 2 ) and fewer overall infections. Epidemic scenarios with higher assumed severity (95 th centile case) are more effectively delayed by these public health measures than less severe scenarios (50 th centile case). This finding is because a higher proportion of all infections present to health services and can be identified for isolation and contact tracing. In a mitigated epidemic, overall utilisation of the health system is increased, because more patients are able to access needed care over the extended epidemic duration (Supplementary Figure 1A) .
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