Author: Nicholas G Davies; Petra Klepac; Yang Liu; Kiesha Prem; Mark Jit; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics Document date: 2020_3_27
ID: 8f76vhyz_54
Snippet: We contrasted three possible hypotheses. In hypothesis 1, there were no age-related differences in susceptibility ( ) or symptomatic fraction ( ). In hypothesis 2, u i = u y i = y susceptibility varied by age ( ), but the proportion of exposed individuals who became (i) u i = u clinical cases did not vary by age ( ). In hypothesis 3, the clinical case probability varied y i = y by age ( ), but susceptibility did not ( ). Susceptibility and clinic.....
Document: We contrasted three possible hypotheses. In hypothesis 1, there were no age-related differences in susceptibility ( ) or symptomatic fraction ( ). In hypothesis 2, u i = u y i = y susceptibility varied by age ( ), but the proportion of exposed individuals who became (i) u i = u clinical cases did not vary by age ( ). In hypothesis 3, the clinical case probability varied y i = y by age ( ), but susceptibility did not ( ). Susceptibility and clinical fraction curves (i) y i = y u i = u were fitted using three control points for young, middle, and old age, interpolating between them with a half-cosine curve (see Methods for details).
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