Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness

Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon

The effectiveness of multiple distancing measures including lockdown has been demonstrated in Europe, but the contributions of individual measures cannot yet be reliably differentiated (13) . The impact of local measures to curb transmission will be estimated from real time data on epidemic growth in the Australian context, based on multiple epidemiological and clinical data streams. Estimates of the local effective reproduction number will enable forecasting of epidemic trajectories (18) to be fed into the analysis pathway presented here. Anticipated case numbers will be used to assess the ability to remain within health system capacity represented by the clinical pathways model, given current levels of social intervention. Such evidence will support strengthening and, when appropriate, cautious relaxation of distancing measures. Further work will examine the impact of varying the intensity of measures over time, to inform the necessary conditions that would enable 'exit strategies' from current stringent lockdown conditions in order to ensure maintenance of social and economic functioning over an extended duration.