Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness

Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056184 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 3A : Duration of excess demand by sector over the course of the epidemic, by sector, for unmitigated (red) and mitigated (blue) scenarios. ICU capacity exceedance for COVID-19 admissions is compared for baseline, double, and nine times ICU capacity. The 'COVID-19 clinics' scenario reflects an alternative triage pathway, and baseline capacity. Dots denote medians, lines range from 5 th to 95 th centiles of simulations. Figure 3B : Peak excess demand by sector expressed as % available capacity, for unmitigated (red) and mitigated (blue) scenarios. This excess is compared for baseline, double, and nine times ICU capacity. The 'COVID-19 clinics' scenario reflects an alternative triage pathway, and baseline capacity. Dots denote medians, lines range from 5 th to 95 th centiles of simulations.