Author: Robert Moss; James Wood; Damien Brown; Freya Shearer; Andrew J Black; Allen Cheng; James M McCaw; Jodie McVernon
Title: Modelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: emodr41j_6
Snippet: We developed an age and risk stratified transmission model of COVID-19 infection based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) paradigm, described in full in supplementary material. Transmission parameters were based on information synthesis from multiple sources, with an assumed R0 of 2.53, and a doubling time of 6.4 days (Table 1) . Potential for pre-symptomatic transmission was assumed within 48 hours prior to symptom onset. While t.....
Document: We developed an age and risk stratified transmission model of COVID-19 infection based on a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) paradigm, described in full in supplementary material. Transmission parameters were based on information synthesis from multiple sources, with an assumed R0 of 2.53, and a doubling time of 6.4 days (Table 1) . Potential for pre-symptomatic transmission was assumed within 48 hours prior to symptom onset. While there is an increasing body of evidence regarding requirements of hospitalised patients for critical care, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the full 'pyramid' of mild and moderately symptomatic disease. We therefore simulated a range of scenarios using Latin Hypercube Sampling from distributions in which the proportion of all infections severe enough to require hospitalisation ranged between 4.3 and 8.6%. These totals represent the aggregate of strongly age-skewed parameter assumptions (Table 2) . For each scenario, corresponding distributions of mild cases presenting to primary care were sampled, ranging from 30-45% at the lower range of the 'severe' spectrum, to 50-75% for the most extreme case (increasing linearly between the two). Cases not presenting to the health system were assumed 'undetected' without differentiation between those with mild or no symptoms.
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