Age-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics

Nicholas G Davies; Petra Klepac; Yang Liu; Kiesha Prem; Mark Jit; Rosalind M Eggo

To infer age-specific susceptibility from reported case distributions, we assumed that reported cases follow the stationary distribution of cases reached in the early phase of an epidemic. Using our dynamic model would allow modelling any transient emphasis in the case distribution associated with the age of the individuals who seeded infection in a given region, but since the age of the true first cases is not generally known, we used the stationary distribution instead. Specifically, we used Bayesian inference to fit age-specific susceptibility to the reported case distribution by first generating the expected case distribution k i from (1) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.