Author: Sang Woo Park; Daniel M Cornforth; Jonathan Dushoff; Joshua S Weitz
Title: The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 50zrnau8_20
Snippet: δ c < 1 and grows smaller as the generation interval grows longer. Thus, the realized proportion of asymptomatic infections will be increased (resp., decreased) if transmission is relatively faster (slower) along the asymptomatic route. The discount δ also depends on the relative variation in the generation-interval distribution, the "dispersion": More variation in generation intervals leads to more opportunities for fast spread and thus to hig.....
Document: δ c < 1 and grows smaller as the generation interval grows longer. Thus, the realized proportion of asymptomatic infections will be increased (resp., decreased) if transmission is relatively faster (slower) along the asymptomatic route. The discount δ also depends on the relative variation in the generation-interval distribution, the "dispersion": More variation in generation intervals leads to more opportunities for fast spread and thus to higher values of δ (similar to shorter average generation intervals).
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