Author: Sang Woo Park; Daniel M Cornforth; Jonathan Dushoff; Joshua S Weitz
Title: The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 50zrnau8_32
Snippet: Much is still unknown about the time scale and effectiveness of asymptomatic transmission in COVID-19. Here we highlight the need to characterize the generation-interval distribution for asymptomatic transmission, and its consequences not only for contact tracing but for estimation of the basic reproduction number of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak [16] and of the effective proportion of asymptomatic transmission during the exponential-growth phase.....
Document: Much is still unknown about the time scale and effectiveness of asymptomatic transmission in COVID-19. Here we highlight the need to characterize the generation-interval distribution for asymptomatic transmission, and its consequences not only for contact tracing but for estimation of the basic reproduction number of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak [16] and of the effective proportion of asymptomatic transmission during the exponential-growth phase. Our reproductive number findings fit into a broader framework linking epidemic speed, strength, and generation intervals -for a given observed speed increases in the mean generation interval imply larger reproduction number [14, 15, [18] [19] [20] .
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