Author: Dimaschko, J.
Title: SUPERSPREADING AS A REGULAR FACTOR OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC Cord-id: c8byhwsj Document date: 2020_6_29
ID: c8byhwsj
Snippet: An impact of superspreading on the course of the COVID-19 epidemic is considered. A two-component model of the epidemic has been developed, in which all infected are divided in two groups. They are asymptomatic superspreaders spreading the infection and sensitive persons which can only get infection. Once infected the sensitive exhibit clear symptoms and become isolated. Taking into account both factors allows find the numbers of superspreaders and sensitive persons. It is shown, that the ratio
Document: An impact of superspreading on the course of the COVID-19 epidemic is considered. A two-component model of the epidemic has been developed, in which all infected are divided in two groups. They are asymptomatic superspreaders spreading the infection and sensitive persons which can only get infection. Once infected the sensitive exhibit clear symptoms and become isolated. Taking into account both factors allows find the numbers of superspreaders and sensitive persons. It is shown, that the ratio of increment of the number of daily cases in the beginning of the epidemic and decrement at the end of the epidemic is equal to the ratio of numbers of the superspreaders and sensitive persons. In this way, on the base of data from 12 countries and territories, the share of asymptomatic among all infected persons is found to be (17 {+/-} 3)%. Specific measures to limit the epidemical incidence are proposed. The possibility of an allergic component in the disease is discussed.
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