A comprehensive analysis of R0 with different lockdown phase during covid-19 in India

Chhabra, M.; Agrawal, T.

Background: World Health organization declared Covid-19 as an outbreak, hence preventive measure like lockdown should be taken to control the spread of infection. This study offers an exhaustive analysis of the reproductive number (R0) in India with major intervention for COVID-19 outbreaks and analysed the lockdown effects on the Covid-19. Methodology: Covid-19 data extracted from Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India. Then, a novel method implemented in the incidence and Optimum function in desolve package to the data of cumulative daily new confirmed cases for robustly estimating the reproduction number in the R software. Result: Analysis has been seen that the lockdown was really quite as effective, India has already shown a major steady decline. The growth rate has fluctuated about 20 percent with trend line projections in various lockdown. A comparative analysis gives an idea of decline in value of R0 from 1.73 to 1.08. Annotation plot showing the predicted R0 values based on previous lockdown in month of June and July. Conclusion: Without lockdown, the growth might not have been contained in India and may have gone into the exponential zone. We show that, the lockdown in India was fairly successful. The effect partial lifting of the lockdown (unlock) is also seen in the results, in terms of increment in R0 values. Hence this study provides a platform for policy makers and government authorities for implementing the strategies to prevent the spread of infection.