Selected article for: "death case and infected case"
Author: Zhong Zheng; Ke Wu; Zhixian Yao; Junhua Zheng; Jian Chen
Title: The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model
  • Document date: 2020_3_13
    • ID: ha9fn3pr_9
    Snippet: We define the states in this model. Medical Observation (MO) is the close contact of confirmed cases and put into medical observation. In the subsequent days, outcome could be any of the three: confirmed cases, discharged without COVID-19 infection, or stay in MO. Discharge (Disc) is a terminal state for a close contact, until he or she becomes another incident of close contact again. Infected is an intermediate state, where the patient becomes a.....
    Document: We define the states in this model. Medical Observation (MO) is the close contact of confirmed cases and put into medical observation. In the subsequent days, outcome could be any of the three: confirmed cases, discharged without COVID-19 infection, or stay in MO. Discharge (Disc) is a terminal state for a close contact, until he or she becomes another incident of close contact again. Infected is an intermediate state, where the patient becomes a confirmed infected case. The outcome is binary: severe, or non-severe. And the outcome is revealed immediately. Non-Severe Case (NS) is the patient also has three possible outcomes in the next day: cure, severe case, or stay in non-severe case. Severe Case (S), the patient has three possible outcomes in the next day: critical case, non-severe case, or stay in severe case. Critical Case (Cr), the patient has three possible outcomes in the next day: cured case, severe case, or stay in critical case. Cured Case (Cu) and Death (D) are also the terminal states for the patient. So, at any moment, we can identify the close contact or patient's state by utilizing a state vector, defined as the following:

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