Time-variant strategies for optimizing the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in protecting lives and livelihoods during the COVID-19 pandemic

Wei Aun Yap; Dhesi Baha Raja

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063248 doi: medRxiv preprint Duration of lockdown. C-series simulations results indicate than for all the durations of lockdown simulated, ranging from 50 to 120 days, infections were not eradicated from the population and the population remained susceptible to COVID-19 at the end of the lockdown. Hence, between 60 and 80 days (the longer lockdowns, the longer the delay) after the end of the lockdown, the prevalence of COVID-19 cases peaked following a resurgence, albeit with lower peaks for prevalence and incidence compared with the baseline scenario. The longer the duration of the lockdown, the lower the peaks for prevalence and incidence. However, proxy measures of economic and social activity are severely reduced by prolonged lockdowns. For example, the cumulative 'acts' per person for the 120-day lockdown is 434, which is the same as that for a 2-day work week with 5-days of lockdown throughout the intervention period. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.