Temporal relationship between outbound traffic from Wuhan and the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) incidence in China

Zaixing Shi; Ya Fang

In this analysis, we examined the temporal relationship between outbound traffic from Wuhan and the incidence of COVID-19 in 31 Chinese provinces. Our analyses suggest a positive timelagged association between human migration and the incidence of COVID-19. We identified 3 distinct clusters of provinces based on the timing and strength of associations: 42% of provinces showed <1 week of lagged association, 39% with 1 week, and 19% with 2-3 weeks. Provinces that are closer to Wuhan and have more passenger influx from Wuhan experienced a more prolonged impact from migration. The correlations between traffic volume and COVID-19 incidence were weaker in economically advantaged provinces. Furthermore, we estimated that All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. (95% CI: 13,589, 25,946) outside of Wuhan by the end of February. This is equivalent to a 39% reduction in expected cumulative incidence, suggesting that transportation control is an effective intervention to contain the COVID-19 outbreak in the absence of cure and immunization.