Selected article for: "disease population spread and population spread"
Author: Jouni T Tuomisto; Juha Yrjölä; Mikko Kolehmainen; Juhani Bonsdorff; Jami Pekkanen; Tero Tikkanen
Title: An agent-based epidemic model REINA for COVID-19 to identify destructive policies
  • Document date: 2020_4_14
    • ID: 9qdl3jt9_41
    Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20047498 doi: medRxiv preprint shows several potential outcomes on a timeline with lazy testing policy and varying degrees of mobility restrictions. When restriction is ca. 41%, the number of infective cases stays constant. This value was used in the sensitivity analyses to introduce maximal sensitivity of the outcomes to the variables tested. Note the logarithmic scale: .....
    Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.09.20047498 doi: medRxiv preprint shows several potential outcomes on a timeline with lazy testing policy and varying degrees of mobility restrictions. When restriction is ca. 41%, the number of infective cases stays constant. This value was used in the sensitivity analyses to introduce maximal sensitivity of the outcomes to the variables tested. Note the logarithmic scale: without restrictions, the number of patients would be hundred times larger in early June than now (early April). According to the model, the disease can be eradicated before September 2020, if mobility restrictions are 50% or more. In contrast, if restrictions are 20% or less, the disease will spread into the population and flame out by the end of 2020.

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