Author: Zhong Zheng; Ke Wu; Zhixian Yao; Junhua Zheng; Jian Chen
Title: The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: ha9fn3pr_32
Snippet: As of Mar 5, there were 23,784 confirmed cases, 53,726 cumulative cured cases, 3042 cumulative deaths, 80,552 cumulative confirmed cases, and 670,854 cumulative close contacts in China. Through the analysis, the 5-day moving average (5DMA) and 10-day moving average (10DMA) increment of the confirmed case in Hubei and non-Hubei suggested that the IFP in China was from Feb 6 to Feb 13 ( Figure. 3A and B) . data on Mar 6 and Mar 9, which was validat.....
Document: As of Mar 5, there were 23,784 confirmed cases, 53,726 cumulative cured cases, 3042 cumulative deaths, 80,552 cumulative confirmed cases, and 670,854 cumulative close contacts in China. Through the analysis, the 5-day moving average (5DMA) and 10-day moving average (10DMA) increment of the confirmed case in Hubei and non-Hubei suggested that the IFP in China was from Feb 6 to Feb 13 ( Figure. 3A and B) . data on Mar 6 and Mar 9, which was validation set, and the results overtly testified the efficacy of this prediction model all in Korean, Italy, and Iran (Table. 3). By utilizing this model, the approximate number of confirmed cases in the three countries at the end of March, April, and May could be predicted (details show in Figure.6 ), which could instruct the international medical resources allocation.
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