Author: Jouni T Tuomisto; Juha Yrjölä; Mikko Kolehmainen; Juhani Bonsdorff; Jami Pekkanen; Tero Tikkanen
Title: An agent-based epidemic model REINA for COVID-19 to identify destructive policies Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: 9qdl3jt9_48
Snippet: Aggressive testing would clearly reduce the number of deaths and recovered patients ( Figure 6 ). The death toll would be 1085, 267, and 90 with lazy, active, and aggressive testing policies, respectively, by the end of February, 2021. The number of recovered patients would be 130000, 35000, and 12000, respectively. Active testing also includes mild cases, and aggressive testing also traces all contacts of positive cases. These are optimistic num.....
Document: Aggressive testing would clearly reduce the number of deaths and recovered patients ( Figure 6 ). The death toll would be 1085, 267, and 90 with lazy, active, and aggressive testing policies, respectively, by the end of February, 2021. The number of recovered patients would be 130000, 35000, and 12000, respectively. Active testing also includes mild cases, and aggressive testing also traces all contacts of positive cases. These are optimistic numbers, as the mobility restriction in Figure 6 is strict (41% permanently), which in practice prevents the expansion of the epidemic. Lazy testing was until recently the current policy in Finland with only severe cases tested, but due to increased capacity, it has been active since early April, 2020.
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