Association between living with children and outcomes from COVID-19: an OpenSAFELY cohort study of 12 million adults in England

Forbes, H.; Morton, C. E.; Bacon, S.; McDonald, H. I.; Minassian, C.; Brown, J.; Rentsch, C. T.; Mathur, R. T.; Schultze, A.; DeVito, N. J.; MacKenna, B.; Hulme, W. J.; Croker, R.; Walker, A. J.; Williamson, E. J.; Bates, C.; Mehrkar, A.; Curtis, H. J.; Evans, D.; Wing, K.; Inglesby, P.; Drysdale, H.; Wong, A.; Cockburn, J.; Mcmanus, R.; Parry, J.; Hester, F.; Harper, S.; Douglas, I. J.; Smeeth, L.; Evans, S. J.; Bhaskaran, K.; Eggo, R. M.; Goldacre, B.; Tomlinson, L.

Background: Close contact with children may provide cross-reactive immunity to SARs-CoV-2 due to more frequent prior coryzal infections from seasonal coronaviruses. Alternatively, close contact with children may increase risk of SARs-CoV-2 infection. We investigated whether risk of infection with SARs-CoV-2 and severe outcomes differed between adults living with and without children. Methods: Working on behalf of NHS England, we conducted a population-based cohort study using primary care data and pseudonymously-linked hospital and intensive care admissions, and death records, from patients registered in general practices representing 40% of England. Using multivariable Cox regression, we calculated fully-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of outcomes from 1st February-3rd August 2020 comparing adults living with and without children in the household. Findings: Among 9,157,814 adults [≤]65 years, living with children 0-11 years was not associated with increased risks of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 related hospital or ICU admission but was associated with reduced risk of COVID-19 death (HR 0.75, 95%CI 0.62-0.92). Living with children aged 12-18 years was associated with a small increased risk of recorded SARS-CoV-2 infection (HR 1.08, 95%CI 1.03-1.13), but not associated with other COVID-19 outcomes. Living with children of any age was also associated with lower risk of dying from non-COVID-19 causes. Among 2,567,671 adults >65 years there was no association between living with children and outcomes related to SARS-CoV-2. We observed no consistent changes in risk following school closure. Interpretation: For adults living with children there is no evidence of an increased risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. These findings have implications for determining the benefit-harm balance of children attending school in the COVID-19 pandemic. Funding This work was supported by the Medical Research Council MR/V015737/1.