Author: Yun-ting He; Hao He; Jing Zhai; Xiao-jin Wang; Bing-shun Wang
Title: Moving-average based index to timely evaluate the current epidemic situation after COVID-19 outbreak Document date: 2020_3_26
ID: bcde0u7u_1
Snippet: In late December 2019, an outbreak of pneumonia occurred in Wuhan, China, and subsequently spread throughout the country. Soon, the pathogenic virus was proven to be a novel coronavirus , which shares 79.5% sequence identity to SARS-CoV (Zhou et al. 2020a) . A total of 81,498 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 3,267 deaths (4.0%) had been reported in China by March 22, 2020; meanwhile, 210,644 laboratory-confirmed cases and 9,517 deaths (4.5%).....
Document: In late December 2019, an outbreak of pneumonia occurred in Wuhan, China, and subsequently spread throughout the country. Soon, the pathogenic virus was proven to be a novel coronavirus , which shares 79.5% sequence identity to SARS-CoV (Zhou et al. 2020a) . A total of 81,498 laboratory-confirmed cases, including 3,267 deaths (4.0%) had been reported in China by March 22, 2020; meanwhile, 210,644 laboratory-confirmed cases and 9,517 deaths (4.5%) were reported outside China (WHO 2020) . Common symptoms of COVID-19 infection include fever, fatigue and dry cough. Some patients would experience severe complications, including acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), arrhythmia and shock ). According to a research, the mean incubation period is 3.0 days (Guan et al. 2020) . Obviously, the COVID-19 epidemic can spread rapidly by human-to-human transmission, but the exact epidemiological characteristics and the specific modes of transmission remain partially unknown. The basic reproduction number (R0) was used to evaluate the transmission ability of COVID-19. Riou et al estimated that the R0 of COVID-19 in January was about 2.2, suggesting the possibility for continuous human-to-human transmission (Riou and Althaus 2020) . Zhou et al obtained similar results with R0 between 2.8 and 3.3 (Zhou et al. 2020b ). Lipsitch et al.
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