Time-variant strategies for optimizing the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in protecting lives and livelihoods during the COVID-19 pandemic

Wei Aun Yap; Dhesi Baha Raja

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063248 doi: medRxiv preprint demonstrates superiority across all outcome measures. D1a, a 2-day work week followed by 5-days of lockdown has the best performance in reducing the over-capacity factor and peak prevalence and incidence, but not in the final tally of deaths or percent infected due to a bimodal peak which occurs long after the intervention ends on Day 244. D1a also has an implied duty cycle of 71%, the tightest lockdown of all the D-series scenarios. Scenario D1d is notable only as a comparison to the baseline -if a full 5-day work week is allowed, with positive implications on business and industry, but weekends are under lockdown, there are substantial improvements to epidemiological outcomes.