Author: Romeo-Aznar, V.; Picinini Freitas, L.; Cruz, O. G.; King, A.; Pascual, M.
Title: Fine-scale heterogeneity in population density predicts wave dynamics in dengue epidemics Cord-id: 6oblohpu Document date: 2021_5_24
ID: 6oblohpu
Snippet: The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The daunting heterogeneity in population distribution and movement in megacities of the developing world frustrates predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence. This pattern emerges from the combined effect
Document: The spread of dengue and other arboviruses constitutes an expanding global health threat. The daunting heterogeneity in population distribution and movement in megacities of the developing world frustrates predictive modeling, even as its importance to disease spread is clearer than ever. Using surveillance data at fine resolution from Rio de Janeiro, we document a scale-invariant pattern in the size of successive epidemics following DENV4 emergence. This pattern emerges from the combined effect of herd immunity and seasonal transmission, and is strongly driven by variation in population density at sub-kilometer scales. It is apparent only when the landscape is stratified by population density and not by spatial proximity as has been common practice. Models that exploit this emergent simplicity should afford improved predictions of epidemic waves.
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