Modeling the case of early detection of Ebola virus disease

Chowell, Diego; Safan, Muntaser; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

The most recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa highlighted critical weaknesses in the medical infrastructure of the affected countries, including effective diagnostics tools, sufficient isolation wards, and enough medical personnel. Here, we develop and analyze a mathematical model to assess the impact of early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals on the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus disease in West Africa in scenarios where Ebola may remain at low levels in the population. Our findings highlight the importance of implementing integrated control measures of early diagnosis and isolation. The mathematical analysis shows a threshold where early diagnosis of pre-symptomatic individuals, combined with a sufficient level of effective isolation, can lead to an epidemic control of Ebola virus disease. That is, the local erradication of the disease or the effective management of the disease at low levels of endemicity.