To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Steffen E. Eikenberry; Marina Mancuso; Enahoro Iboi; Tin Phan; Keenan Eikenberry; Yang Kuang; Eric Kostelich; Abba B. Gumel

We adapt these previously developed SEIR model frameworks for transmission dynamics to explore the potential community-wide impact of public use of face masks, of varying efficacy and compliance, on the transmission dynamics and control of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we develop a two-group model, which stratifies the total population into those who habitually do and do not wear face masks in public or other settings where transmission may occur. This model takes the form of a deterministic system of nonlinear differential equations, and explicitly includes asymptomatically-infectious humans. We examine mask effectiveness and coverage (i.e., fraction of the population that habitually wears masks) as our two primary parameters of interest.