Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model

Lakman, I. A.; Askarov, R. A.; Prudnikov, V. B.; Askarova, Z. F.; Timiryanova, V. M.

This paper analyzes and predicts age-sex mortality rates by causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The following methods of analysis were used: the Lee–Carter model, singular value decomposition, and ARIMA-modeling. The forecast results suggest that by 2025 the Republic of Bashkortostan will have lower mortality due to malignant neoplasms in all age groups, except for the 70+ group for women and 50+ age groups for men; lower mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in all age groups for men and higher mortality in 45+ age groups for women; lower mortality due to injuries in all age groups for both sexes; no significant changes in mortality due to respiratory diseases; increased mortality from gastrointestinal diseases for both sexes at all ages, except for children; higher mortality due to infections at 20–54 for men and 20–64 for women; and almost half lower mortality from infections in the age group of 0–4 years for both sexes.