Author: Fu-Chang Hu; Fang-Yu Wen
Title: The Estimated Time-Varying Reproduction Numbers during the Ongoing Epidemic of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: nlpeyh5e_8
Snippet: Next, under the above specified two scenarios, we plotted the daily estimates of the time-varying reproduction numbers, R0(t), over sliding weekly windows, 4,5 from January 19 to March 14, 2020 in the middle panels of Figures 2A and 2B for the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in China. Namely, at any given day of the epidemic curve, R0(t) was estimated for the weekly window ending on that day. 4, 5 The estimated R0(t) were not shown from the very beginn.....
Document: Next, under the above specified two scenarios, we plotted the daily estimates of the time-varying reproduction numbers, R0(t), over sliding weekly windows, 4,5 from January 19 to March 14, 2020 in the middle panels of Figures 2A and 2B for the ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in China. Namely, at any given day of the epidemic curve, R0(t) was estimated for the weekly window ending on that day. 4, 5 The estimated R0(t) were not shown from the very beginning of the epidemic because precise estimation was not possible in that period. 5 Specifically, the blue lines showed the posterior medians of R0(t), the grey zones represented the 95% credible intervals (CreI), and the black horizontal dashed lines indicated the threshold value of R0 = 1.0. 4, 5 In addition, the first and third panels of Figures 2A and 2B were the miniaturized epidemic curve of daily new confirmed cases (see Figure 1 ) and the distributions of SI used for the estimation of R0(t). 4, 5 Intriguingly, both curves of the estimated R0(t) went down to be less than 1.0 around February 17−18, 2020.
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