To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Steffen E. Eikenberry; Marina Mancuso; Enahoro Iboi; Tin Phan; Keenan Eikenberry; Yang Kuang; Eric Kostelich; Abba B. Gumel

These general conclusions are illustrated by our simulated case studies, in which we have tuned the infectious contact rate, β (either as fixed β 0 or time-varying β(t)), to cumulative mortality data for Washington and New York state through April 2, 2020, and imposed hypothetical mask adoption scenarios. The estimated range for β is much smaller in Washington state, consistent with this state's much slower epidemic growth rate and doubling time. Model fitting also suggests that total symptomatic cases may be dramatically undercounted in both areas, consistent with prior conclusions on the pandemic [38] . Simulated futures for both states suggest that broad adoption of even weak masks use could help avoid many deaths, but the greatest relative death reductions are generally seen when the underlying transmission rate also falls or is low at baseline.