Updated Model for the USA Summer 2021 CoVID-19 Resurgence

Eng, G.

Over the course of the CoVID-19 pandemic, we utilized widely-available real-time data to create models for predicting its spread, and to estimate the time evolution for each of the USA CoVID-19 waves. Our recent medrxiv.org preprint (10.1101_2021.08.16.21262150) examined the USA Summer 2021 resurgence, from ~6/7/2021 up through ~8/15/2021 (Stage 1). Our preprint covering this period showed that CoVID-19 could infect virtually all susceptible non-vaccinated persons, who were practicing minimal Social Distancing and NO Mask-Wearing. The most recent USA Summer 2021 resurgence data, from ~8/13/2021 up through 10/7/2021 (Stage 2), shows a significant "flattening of the curve". Since no new government mandates were involved, our interpretation is that some vaccine-hesitant people have now elected to become vaccinated. The Social Distancing parameter in our model showed a ~6.67X increase between Stage 1 and Stage 2, indicating that this parameter also can serve as an indicator of vaccination rates. The other parameter in our model, which is associated with Mask-Wearing, increased from zero to a finite but relatively small value. Using the 10/7/2021 USA CoVID-19 overall mortality rate of ~1.60942% gives these updated predictions for the total number of USA CoVID-19 cases and deaths: N(Total by 3/21/2022)~ 52,188,000; N(Deaths by 3/21/2022)~ 839,900 ; N(Total by 3/21/2024)~ 52,787,000; N(Deaths by 3/21/2024)~ 849,600 ; assuming no new 2021 Winter Resurgence occurs (with 3 Figures).