Author: Huiwen Wang; Yanwen Zhang; Shan Lu; Shanshan Wang
Title: Tracking and forecasting milepost moments of the epidemic in the early-outbreak: framework and applications to the COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: fyh8gjjl_66
Snippet: After the shutdown of most parts of Hubei province in Jan 23rd, other parts of China also immediately launched prevention and control strategies, including regional isolation, admission of all confirmed patients, isolating all suspected patients and so on. The effective implementation of these intervention policies quickly controlled the rapid spread of the epidemic in these areas. As can be seen in Figure 1 , the parameter infectious rate K t , .....
Document: After the shutdown of most parts of Hubei province in Jan 23rd, other parts of China also immediately launched prevention and control strategies, including regional isolation, admission of all confirmed patients, isolating all suspected patients and so on. The effective implementation of these intervention policies quickly controlled the rapid spread of the epidemic in these areas. As can be seen in Figure 1 , the parameter infectious rate K t , which reflects the intensity of the spread of the epidemic, has shown a significant downward trend since Jan 27th after severe fluctuations from Jan 22nd to 26th. As can be seen in Fig. 1 , we find out that the daily confirmed cases reached at peak on Jan 30th, 2020, with 761 confirmed cases and then continued to decline for two consecutive days. However, the migration raised from people returning to work after Chinese New Year on Feb 3rd
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