The focus and timing of COVID-19 pandemic control measures under healthcare resource constraints

Chen Wei; Zhengyang Wang; Zhichao Liang; Quanying Liu

The duration of hospital overload followed closely the total outbreak duration (+0 onset: In an attempt to evaluate the seriousness of suppression failure, we examined scenarios where relative was at threshold level. A community with Germany level of healthcare capacity (8.0 beds per 1,000 population) and acting as promptly as Wuhan (0 days onset delay) would have a high relative threshold. But if transmission control requirements were relaxed too much, it would still see 83.3% of the population infected but untreated ( Figure 4C , right). To generalize, we simulated such scenarios with 0 to 7 days of onset delay and 2.8 to 8.0 beds per 1,000 population (see Figure S3 ). The results suggested that transmission control levels just short of suppression requirement, not only would yield the . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.