Post-Traumatic Outcomes among Survivors of the Earthquake in Central Italy of August 24, 2016. A Study on PTSD Risk and Vulnerability Factors.

Pino, Olimpia; Pelosi, Annalisa; Artoni, Valentina; Mari, Massimo

Central Italy suffered from the earthquake of 2016 resulting in great damage to the community. The purpose of the present study was to determine the long-term traumatic outcomes among the population. A preliminary study aimed at obtaining the Italian translation of the first 16 item of HTQ IV part [1] which was administered, 20 months after the disaster, at 281 survivors. In backward stepwise logistic regressions models, we estimated among the respondent's characteristics and event-related variables the best predictors of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD).A Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) revealed a HTQ five-factors solution as best model, with satisfactory indexes of fit. HTQ held a positive correlation with both the SQD-P (r = .65, p < .05) and SQD-D subscales (r = .47, p < .05). ROC analysis suggested an area of .951 (95% CI = .917-.985) for the PTSD prediction. Basing on sensibility (.963) and specificity (.189), the best cut-off of 2.0 allowed discriminating for PTSD positive cases. After 20 months of the earthquake, the estimate prevalence of PTSD among the survivors is of 21.71% with a consistent and graded association between exposure variables and vulnerability factors (gender, age, exposure to death and home damage) and PTSD symptoms.