Author: Shnip, A. I.
Title: Epidemic Dynamics Kinetic Model and Its Testing on the Covid-19 Epidemic Spread Data Cord-id: 5nptpp5d Document date: 2021_3_2
ID: 5nptpp5d
Snippet: A kinetic model has been proposed for the spread of epidemics, describing the dynamics of the variation in the number of disease-free, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases, based on a lag logistic equation. It has been established that this model predicts the possibility of existence of a quasi-steady-state mode of an epidemic in which the number of infected cases is constant due to the balance of the daily increment of infections and recoveries. Conditions have been identified under which such a
Document: A kinetic model has been proposed for the spread of epidemics, describing the dynamics of the variation in the number of disease-free, infected, and recovered (SIR) cases, based on a lag logistic equation. It has been established that this model predicts the possibility of existence of a quasi-steady-state mode of an epidemic in which the number of infected cases is constant due to the balance of the daily increment of infections and recoveries. Conditions have been identified under which such a mode can be a source of the advance of the second epidemic wave. The COVID-19 pandemic data were used to show the possibility of reliable forecasts based on this model of the spread of an epidemic for a period of up to two months.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- Try single phrases listed below for: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date