The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico

Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra; Andreu Comas-Garcia; Esteban Hernandez-Vargas; Mario Santana-Cibrian; Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . Figure 5 shows the expected number of exported cumulative cases (until April 1st) to several of the Mexican cities that normally receive the highest outbound air or road travel volumes. Here, as ρ = 0.8, R 0 = 2.1534. Figure 5 (a) shows the expected number of exported cumulative cases that use air travel. When considering one IPD, we see that few states receive at least one exported case from Mexico City (Cancun, Guadalajara and Monterrey). On the other hand, with three IPD, these states import 4, 3 and 3 cases from Mexico City, respectively. Figure 5 (b) shows the exported cumulative cases for terrestrial transportation. Here, if the imported cases per day (IPD) is one, then Puebla, Jalisco, Michoacan, Guerrero, and Queretaro import 4, 5, 3, 2 and 1 cases up to Aril 21st from Mexico City, respectively; while if IPD is equal to three, then Puebla, Jalisco, Michoacan, Guerrero, and Queretaro import 13, 16, 9, 7 and 4 infections from Mexico City, respectively. Figure 6 shows the expected number of exported cumulative cases to several Mexican cities. We simulate the number of cases until April 21st. We can observe the importance of the number of people who arrive infected since these can significantly increase the spread of the disease to other states. For example, Figure 6 (a) shows that for Cancun, the number of exported cases can increase by 50 cases if instead of 1 IPD, we have 3 IPD. For Monterrey the increase, under the same conditions, is approximately 40 cases. Figure 6 (b) shows a greater increase in cases for terrestrial than for air transportation. For example, we expect 9 . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.