Modeling the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic: A comprehensive guide of infectious disease and decision-analytic models

Mac, Stephen; Mishra, Sharmistha; Ximenes, Raphael; Barrett, Kali; Khan, Yasin A.; Naimark, David M.J.; Sander, Beate

• This commentary discusses the different types of models that can be used for pandemic planning in response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). This article reviews different types of transmission models for infectious diseases and health-system models based on decision-analysis principles. • We include steps to guide conceptualization of a health-system model with a transmission component to aid decision makers and support public health policy using our COVID-19 Resource Estimator model, which was developed to estimate hospital resources in Ontario, Canada. • This article will be of most interest to health care decision makers, methodologists, health service researchers, and specialists in knowledge translation as well as infectious diseases. While the pandemic has been controlled in some parts of the world, many experts suggest an inevitable second wave. This article will be timely to equip quantitative researchers and decision makers with a guide to understand how modeling and early collaboration can be useful in predicting future consequences of this pandemic and impacts of potential interventions.