Predicting COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia Using Modified Singular Spectrum Analysis

Alharbi, N.

This research presents a modified Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) approach for the analysis of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia. We have proposed this approach and developed it in [1,2,3] for separability and grouping step in SSA, which plays an important role for reconstruction and forecasting in the SSA. The modified SSA mainly enables us to identify the number of the interpretable components required for separability, signal extraction and noise reduction. The approach was examined using different number of simulated and real data with different structures and signal to noise ratio. In this study we examine its capability in analysing COVID-19 data. Then, we use Vector SSA for predicting new data points and the peak of this pandemic. The results shows that the approach can be used as a promising one in decomposing and forecasting the daily cases of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia.