Author: Samuel Soubeyrand; Melina Ribaud; Virgile Baudrot; Denis Allard; Denys Pommeret; Lionel Roques
Title: The current COVID-19 wave will likely be mitigated in the second-line European countries Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: dh3cgd48_24
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https: //doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069179 doi: medRxiv preprint Austria Sweden Figure 2 : Forecast of the cumulative mortality based on the fitted mixture model for Austria and Sweden when the last observation Ï„ (indicated by the vertical dotted line) is made on March 30 (row 1), April 6 (row 2) or April 14 (row 3). The number of deaths at Ï„ in the focal country is.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https: //doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069179 doi: medRxiv preprint Austria Sweden Figure 2 : Forecast of the cumulative mortality based on the fitted mixture model for Austria and Sweden when the last observation Ï„ (indicated by the vertical dotted line) is made on March 30 (row 1), April 6 (row 2) or April 14 (row 3). The number of deaths at Ï„ in the focal country is indicated by the horizontal dotted line. The part of the solid red line on the left of Ï„ is obtained by smoothing mortality data for the focal country (red dots); the part on the right of Ï„ is the median forecast. Two types of 95% confidence envelopes are drawn (grey areas); see Section A.3 in the Appendix.
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