Will There Be an Epidemic of Corollary Illnesses Linked to a COVID-19-Related Recession?

Brenner, M Harvey

Currently, US unemployment claims have skyrocketed to 30 million in the past six weeks, continuing in a stark upward trend, and labor economists estimate the unemployment rate at minimally 18.3%. These unemployment figures are a feature of the COVID-19 recession that is characterized by sharp gross domestic product (GDP) growth decline. Despite the greatly damaging impact of the opioid crisis over 2015 to 2017 resulting in a decrease in life expectancy over these three years, the long-term increases in average GDP per capita from 1999 to 2018 managed to save lives on average (i.e., age-adjusted mortality rates declined in the United States). For example, during 1999 to 2018, the average GDP per capita annually increased 1.2%, whereas the related age-adjusted mortality rate has shown an annual decrease of approximately 1% on average (0.99%). However, recessions erase some of this beneficial effect of GDP growth on mortality reduction.1 (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print May 14, 2020: e1-e2. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2020.305724).