Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 and Impact on Public Health Policy

B Shayak; Mohit Manoj Sharma; Richard H Rand; Awadhesh Kumar Singh; Anoop Misra

Turning now to R2, we have already indicated its various components in Fig. 1 . The first component, R2 a , requires the most thought to express in a mathematical form. By hypothesis, at this moment, during an infinitesimal time interval Δt, R1Δt number of people take sick, of whom μ1R1Δt will be asymptomatic (zero contribution to R2 a ) and (1−μ1)R1Δt will be symptomatic (full contribution to R2 a ). But, this latter fraction will manifest symptoms and hence get to know of their sickness during a time interval Δt at a time τ2 into the future from now and head to quarantine only then. Thus we can say that, at time τ2 from now, the rate of progress to quarantine will be (1−μ1)R1 where R1 is measured now. In other words, ( )