Author: B Shayak; Mohit Manoj Sharma; Richard H Rand; Awadhesh Kumar Singh; Anoop Misra
Title: Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 and Impact on Public Health Policy Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: 3ueg2i6w_32
Snippet: (2b) Thus, the time lag or latency period between falling sick and appearance of symptoms adds a delay to the rate. In other words, the flow rate out of exposed sick is (the relevant fraction of) the flow rate in, retarded by the time Ï„2. The logic leading to the retardation is important -we shall use it again. The other contributions to R2 are easier. R2 b is the number of anticipatory quarantines -these are typically made by contact tracing of.....
Document: (2b) Thus, the time lag or latency period between falling sick and appearance of symptoms adds a delay to the rate. In other words, the flow rate out of exposed sick is (the relevant fraction of) the flow rate in, retarded by the time Ï„2. The logic leading to the retardation is important -we shall use it again. The other contributions to R2 are easier. R2 b is the number of anticipatory quarantines -these are typically made by contact tracing of existing cases, so it is reasonable to assume a form k3xw. This assumes that the tracing and quarantining are done nearly instantaneously, which is reasonable since the time scale involved is usually a few hours and not days. The proportionality to x in this term ensures that if the number of healthy people at large is very small, then also huge numbers don't get quarantined through contact tracing. Finally, R2 c represents the fact that there are some people who do not have the Coronavirus but display similar symptoms as a result of other illnesses for example flu. These people also present to quarantine and testing. We model this through a term k4x. Adding all these together, is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint
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