Mathematical Models for Describing and Predicting the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis

Cintra, P. H. P.; Citeli, M. F.; Fontinele, F. N.

The present article studies the extension of two deterministic models for describing the novel coronavirus pandemic crisis, the SIR model and the SEIR model. The models were studied and compared to real data in order to support the validity of each description and extract important information regarding the pandemic, such as the basic reproductive number R0, which might provide useful information concerning the rate of increase of the pandemic predicted by each model. We next proceed to making predictions and comparing more complex models derived from the SEIR model with the SIRD model, in order to find the most suitable one for describing and predicting the pandemic crisis. Aiming to answer the question if the simple SIRD model is able to make reliable predictions and deliver suitable information compared to more complex models.