The current state of COVID-19 in Australia: importation and spread

Jessica Liebig; Raja Jurdak; Ahmad El Shoghri; Dean Paini

Our predictions of travel patterns can help policy makers weigh the COVID-19 risk posed by travellers from different countries, as well as the potential reduction in this risk by implementing travel bans and quarantine rules that only apply to foreign travellers. The risk reduction in COVID-19 importations into Australia as a result of travel bans varies across the different source countries. The risk reduction when travel bans are applied to countries where traveller volumes into Australia are dominated by visitors, such as 4 . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. China and South Korea, can be substantial. In contrast, the risk reduction for travel bans relating to countries with a dominant number of returning Australian citizens or residents, such as Italy, Spain, Thailand, and Indonesia, will have a smaller impact on COVID-19 importations, as the citizens and residents can still enter the country.