Author: Fabiana Ganem; Fabio Macedo Mendes; Silvano Barbosa Oliveira; Victor Bertolo Gomes Porto; Wildo Araujo; Helder Nakaya; Fredi A Diaz-Quijano; Julio Croda
Title: The impact of early social distancing at COVID-19 Outbreak in the largest Metropolitan Area of Brazil. Document date: 2020_4_8
ID: 9bi6pobg_14
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055103 doi: medRxiv preprint predicts that after 30 days, COVID19 patients would demand 5,384 ICU beds, which surpasses the current ICU capacity in 130%; furthermore, in the second month the ICU bed demand would be 14 times the ICU capacity. Overall, this would result in 1,783 deaths in the first month and 89,349 in the second month......
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20055103 doi: medRxiv preprint predicts that after 30 days, COVID19 patients would demand 5,384 ICU beds, which surpasses the current ICU capacity in 130%; furthermore, in the second month the ICU bed demand would be 14 times the ICU capacity. Overall, this would result in 1,783 deaths in the first month and 89,349 in the second month. While social distancing measures are maintained, the model predicts 317 deaths in the first month and a total of 1682 in the second. This scenario does not overburden the healthcare system which represents a maximum of 76% ICU beds capacity.
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